Youth Drug Use May Climb

Is drug use among high school-age teens about to soar? Probably, according to an analysis of historical data performed by Carnevale Associates, LLC.
The analysis, which appears in the firm’s policy brief, “Could Youth Drug Use Be Making a Comeback?,” shows that shortly after youth fear and disapproval of marijuana use diminished in the 1990s, teen marijuana use jumped over 30 percentage points between 1992 and 1997. After youth attitudes reversed, teen marijuana use dropped dramatically, falling 29 percent before bottoming out in 2006.

 
However, Carnevale Associates now fears a repeat of the 1990s, as youth attitudes towards marijuana have softened again. (The brief is careful to point out that although there’s no causal relationship between youth attitudes and use, the two do appear to be connected.)
 
Why are youth attitudes changing? According to the brief, it’s at least partly connected to cuts to prevention funding made by the Bush Administration in favor of attacking drug supply.  
 
Prevention, of course, is the most cost-effective way to address the problem, which is why it’s distressing to learn that in the proposed 2010 budget, a program like the Safe and Drug Free Schools and Communities Program (SDFSC) may be eliminated.
 
As the brief notes, such a cut would “eliminate the only source of funding for school-based prevention programs serving 37 million youth per year.” Seems like a sure way to make youth drug use go through the roof.
 
But what do you think?